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The United States Recession of 2022-2025

June 20, 2024

Is United States Facing Recession in 2024?


Meriam Webster's defines a recessions as 2 quarters of negative GDP Growth


We experienced 2 quarters of Negative GDP growth in 2022 in Q1 and Q2 ____ According to multiple sources. Since then the economy has experienced stagnation.


see data yourself here: https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_real_gdp_growth


Then why wasn't this reported on >>


There was an attempt to change the Definition by legacy media ...


The Biden Admin attempted to tried to change the definition of a Recession 


The economic landscape of the United States in 2022 and 2023 was characterized by a notable downturn, marking a period of significant challenge and contemplation for economists, policymakers, and citizens alike.


This downturn was unofficially recognized as a recession, delineated by two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth


:a widely accepted benchmark for defining economic recessions,



Soooo are we in a recession in 2024 // depends who you ask...


According to National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) 2022 Was not A Reccesion


Who is  The National Bureau of Economic Research?


The organization operates under the guidance of a 51-member Board of Directors, comprising representatives from universities, professional associations, and business and labor communities. The current president and CEO of the NBER is James M. Poterba from MIT.


The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting and disseminating unbiased economic research to better understand the workings of the economy. Its primary audience includes policymakers, business professionals, and academics. The NBER is renowned for its studies on business cycles, long-term economic growth, and its ability to forecast the onset and conclusion of recessions in the United States.


What does NBER Research cover?


Recent NBER research has covered a wide range of topics, including:

- state mandates and healthcare shortages

- Cumulative advantages in research

- Market dynamics of generic drugs in healthcare

- Access, affordability, and quality in healthcare markets

- Social Security and global retirement trends

- Labor force participation among older adults

- Impact of broadband internet access on Medicare patient health outcomes


The NBER publishes its findings through working papers, articles, and reports available on its website. The 2022-2023 recession thus emerged as a critical juncture for the U.S., compelling a reevaluation of economic strategies and resilience mechanisms in face of multifaceted challenges.


The Definition And Indicators Of A Recession:


The concept of a recession, while seemingly straightforward seems to complicate government employees.


Beyond GDP figures, economists and policymakers look at other critical indicators to declare a recession.


Employment rates are particularly telling; an increase in job losses indicates companies are reducing costs due to decreased demand for their products or services—a classic sign of economic downturn.


Similarly, falling retail sales suggest consumers are tightening their belts, further exacerbating the cycle of reduced spending and production.


Thus, while two quarters of negative GDP growth serve as a clear signal, understanding recession dynamics requires analyzing various aspects of the economy to grasp its full impact on society's wellbeing.

2 Consequtive QUARTERs OF NEGATIVE GDP at start of 2022 Leads To AI Reccesion


The initial signs that the United States was entering a period of economic contraction became unmistakably clear with the first quarter of negative GDP growth in 2022.

What is Economic Stagnation ?


Economic stagnation is a prolonged period of slow economic growth, typically measured by the growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) or other aggregate measures of economic activity. In some cases, it can also be characterized by high unemployment and underemployment, low consumer and business confidence, minimal investment, and stagnant wages.



Key features of economic stagnation can include:

1. Low Growth Rates: GDP growth is significantly below historical averages and lower than potential growth rates.


2. High Unemployment: Persistent high levels of unemployment or underemployment, with difficulties in creating new jobs.


3. Stagnant Wages: Little or no real wage growth, making it difficult for consumers to increase their purchasing power.


4. Low Investment: Businesses and investors may be reluctant to commit capital to new ventures due to uncertainty or lackluster returns.


5. Deflation or Low Inflation: Prices may remain flat or even decrease, which can be a sign of weak demand.



This period of stagnation can be traced back to start in start in 2022 q3 right after the recession 'ended'.


The Reccesion and Stagnation 2022-2025 Leads to Econmic Instablity and AI Job DisPlacement 


In recent years, the US economy has experienced a gradual slowdown attributed to several factors.


The transition to AI-powered work has also contributed to job losses, increasing unemployment and further dampening consumer spending.


This downturn marked a significant shift from the previously optimistic forecasts that had dominated economic discussions. The GDP, or Gross Domestic Product, which measures the total value of all goods and services produced over a specific time period, contracted for the first time since the devastating impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic began to wane.


Is the Economy in a Recession? An analysis of the U.S. Economy - Michigan Journal of Economics", sites.lsa.umich.edu, Unknown, https://sites.lsa.umich.edu/mje/2023/01/24/is-the-economy-in-a-recession-an-analysis-of-the-u-s-economy/, Web, Accessed 08. Jun 2024

[2]

"Finland's economy is in recession and the recovery will be slow - Bank of Finland Bulletin", bofbulletin.fi, Unknown, https://www.bofbulletin.fi/en/2023/6/finland-s-economy-is-in-recession-and-the-recovery-will-be-slow/, Web, Accessed 08. Jun 2024

[3]

"West Virginia Economic Outlook 2022-2026 | John Chambers College of Business and Economics | West Virginia University", business.wvu.edu, Unknown, https://business.wvu.edu/research-outreach/bureau-of-business-and-economic-research/economic-outlook-conferences-and-reports/economic-outlook-reports/west-virginia-economic-outlook-2022-2026, Web, Accessed 08. Jun 2024

[4]

"What is the role of monetary policy in alleviating economic downturns? | Tax Policy Center", taxpolicycenter.org, Unknown, https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/briefing-book/what-role-monetary-policy-alleviating-economic-downturns, Web, Accessed 08. Jun 2024

[5]

"You Decide: What Went Right to Prevent the 2023 Recession? - College of Agriculture and Life Sciences", cals.ncsu.edu, Unknown, https://cals.ncsu.edu/news/you-decide-what-went-right-to-prevent-the-2023-recession/, Web, Accessed 08. Jun 2024



By STAFF WRITER February 23, 2025
The Department Of Government Efficiency's Investigation - > The finale of Beast Games, the record-breaking reality competition series created by YouTube star MrBeast (Jimmy Donaldson) and streamed on Prime Video, revealed its winner on February 13, 2025. Player 831, Jeffrey Randall Allen, took home the largest cash prize in TV history—$10 million—after outlasting 1,000 contestants in a series of intense physical, mental, and social challenges. The prize doubled from $5 million to $10 million following a dramatic coin toss in the penultimate episode, making Allen's victory even more monumental. Allen's win came after a nail-biting final challenge where he and Player 830, Twana Barnett, had to choose from ten briefcases, one containing the $10 million cheque. Allen guessed correctly on his first try and plans to use part of his winnings to fund research for his son's rare condition, Creatine Transporter Deficiency. While Allen claimed the top prize, MrBeast revealed that over $20 million in prizes were distributed among 85 contestants, including a $1.8 million private island won by Player 952, Mia Speight .Beast Game has been lauded for its massive scale and record-breaking 50 Guinness World Records, becoming Prime Video's most-watched unscripted show with 50 million global views. While Season 2 has not been officially confirmed, MrBeast has expressed confidence in its continuation, leaving fans eager for more high-stakes drama and unprecedented prizes. Beast Games Controversy Beast Games is a reality competition series created by YouTube star Jimmy Donaldson , known by his online alias MrBeast , in partnership with Amazon Prime Video . Launched in 2024, the show features 1,000 contestants competing in high-stakes, elaborate challenges for the chance to win what was initially a $5 million grand prize, later increased to $10 million in the first season, marking it as the largest single cash prize in the history of television and streaming. T he format of Beast Games is inspired by both MrBeast's popular YouTube challenge videos and the global phenomenon " Squid Game ," although without the lethal consequences. Contestants participate in a mix of physical, mental, and social challenges, set in grand, purpose-built environments, including a specially constructed city dubbed " Beast City ." The show has attracted significant attention for its scale, with a reported production budget over $100 million , and for breaking numerous world records during its filming. Beast Game premiered on December 19, 2024, with episodes released weekly on Prime Video. Despite its popularity, with over 50 million viewers in the first 25 days, it has also faced criticism for its high-stakes nature, the potential message it sends about money, and controversy surrounding alleged poor working conditions during production. Nevertheless, it represents a significant crossover of online content creators into mainstream media, showcasing MrBeast's ability to captivate an audience across different platforms. s beast games season 2 confirmed ? Yes, MrBeast (Jimmy Donaldson) has expressed confidence in the continuation of the series. In interviews, he has hinted at plans for future seasons, stating, "I love what we did with Beast Games... There's no way we're not," indicating a strong likelihood of a Season 2. Web Content : Articles from various sources, like esports.gg and Yahoo, have discussed the potential for Season 2, with some citing MrBeast's comments as a near-confirmation, although no official announcement from Amazon has been made. Application Website : The official Beast Games website encourages people to sign up for notifications when applications for future seasons reopen, suggesting planning for more seasons. Social Media Sentiment : Posts on X (formerly Twitter) reflect fan anticipation and speculation about a Season 2, with some users even claiming to have inside knowledge or interpreting MrBeast's hints as confirmations. W hile these signs collectively point towards a high probability of Beast Games returning for a second season, without an official statement from Amazon Prime Video, it remains unconfirmed. The show's viewership success and MrBeast's enthusiasm suggest fans should keep an eye out for an official announcement, which might come around or shortly after the Season 1 finale.
By STAFF WRITER February 19, 2025
In a bold statement President Donald Trump has claimed that Elon Musk is on the brink of exposing vast amounts of fraud and misuse of funds within the U.S. Pentagon. Trump's Expectations at Pentagon: Musk Will Expose Massive Pentagon Fraud " We're going to find billions, hundreds of billions of dollars of fraud and abuse, " as reported by multiple sources including Reuters, Al Jazeera, and Fox News. Musk's Role: Elon Musk has been appointed to head DOGE, giving him access to confidential information across government agencies. His involvement has raised concerns about conflicts of interest, especially since his companies, like SpaceX, have significant contracts with the Pentagon. Pentagon Budget: With a budget approaching $1 trillion annually, the Pentagon's spending has been under scrutiny. Trump's directive for Musk to audit military spending includes a focus on areas like shipbuilding, which has been criticized for being overly costly and slow. Elon Musk's Role In Unveiling Government Mismanagement Critics argue that Musk's actions, perceived as purging US government positions, are undermining the democratic framework, describing it as an "evisceration of democracy". Seen her: https://www.murphy.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/murphy-on-abcs-this-week-this-is-a-red-alert-moment-our-democracy-is-at-risk However, Musk's supporters insist that his efforts are necessary to expose and address deeply entrenched inefficiencies and corrupt practices within government operations. They argue that his mission is not to dismantle but to reform, pushing for a more accountable and transparent system. Ceo Targets Alleged Corruption Elon Musk, the CEO of both Tesla and SpaceX, has been thrust into the spotlight as he undertakes an audacious campaign targeting alleged corruption within the United States government. Musk's initiative has gained significant attention, especially after former President Donald Trump publicly supported him in exposing what they claim to be "billions in fraud and abuse" within the Pentagon. This crusade is not merely investigative; it appears to be a deeper, structural overhaul aimed at rooting out inefficiencies and questionable practices. The endeavor has sparked a wave of controversy and debate across the political spectrum. On one hand, proponents argue that Musk's actions represent a necessary intervention. By shedding light on potential misuse of funds and systemic corruption, Musk could lead a movement toward greater transparency and accountability within government ranks. Such measures could potentially result in substantial savings and better allocation of taxpayer dollars. Critics Warn Against Dismantling Of 'Democratic Structures' Critics are expressing growing concern over what they perceive as a dangerous dismantling of democratic structures in the United States, following recent assertions by former President Donald Trump. Trump claims that Elon Musk, the influential entrepreneur at the helm of SpaceX and Tesla, is on a mission to expose widespread fraud and abuse within the Pentagon. Concurrently, Musk is reportedly orchestrating extensive job cuts within U.S. government sectors, a move opponents argue threatens to erode foundational democratic principles. These critics argue that while rooting out corruption is critical, the approach of purging government positions en masse risks destabilizing democratic institutions designed to uphold transparency and accountability. The significant reduction in workforce can lead to a diminished capacity for effective governance, potentially leaving critical areas in jeopardy. Beyond the immediate impact on governance, there are deeper concerns about the precedent such actions might set. Context The Pentagon has failed Their last 7 Audits The Department of Defense (DoD) has been unable to pass its financial audits since audits became mandatory in 2018. This failure streak was highlighted in various news outlets, including The Hill, Reuters, and Defense News, where it was noted that the Pentagon failed its seventh consecutive audit in November 2024. Audit Results: The audits have consistently resulted in a "disclaimer of opinion," meaning auditors couldn't form an opinion due to insufficient, appropriate evidence. This has been attributed to the vast and decentralized nature of the DoD's assets and liabilities, spread across thousands of locations worldwide. This has created a new political climate where figures like Trump can leverage public sentiment to push for reforms or investigations. The Doge Connection From Trump and Musk: A Business Mindset in American Government Trump's Stance: Trump has used these failures as ammunition to argue for a need for drastic reform, often citing the need to eliminate "waste, fraud, and abuse" in government spending. His appointment of Musk to a role like DOGE can be seen as an attempt to bring in an outsider with a reputation for innovation and efficiency to tackle this issue. Musk's Involvement: Elon Musk's task, under Trump's directive, aligns with the narrative that the Pentagon's financial management is in dire need of overhaul. Musk's role could be seen as an effort to apply business-like scrutiny to government operations, potentially using technology or innovative audit strategies to address the issues the traditional audits have failed to resolve. Positive View: If successful, this initiative could uncover inefficiencies or actual fraud, leading to significant savings or better allocation of resources. It might also improve public trust in how defense dollars are spent. Skeptical View: Critics might argue that this is more about political theater or using the audit failures for political gain. There's also skepticism about whether Musk, with his business interests, can be an impartial overseer, especially given his companies' contracts with the DoD. The initiative faces legal, ethical, and practical challenges. The lack of passed audits over the years suggests systemic problems that might not be easily solved by a single initiative, no matter how well-intentioned or led by a figure like Musk. Trump's assertion that Musk is poised to reveal substantial fraud and abuse within the Pentagon has raised eyebrows, not only because of the gravity of the allegation but also due to the broader implications of involving a private sector mogul so deeply in public sector matters.
USAID Afghanistan
By STAFF WRITER February 17, 2025
The funding of ' irrigation canals ' in Afghanistan, amounting to hundreds of millions, has stirred controversy due to its potential misuse by the Taliban, especially in supporting opium production alongside its intended goal of enhancing agricultural productivity. The Craziest part about this, many of links relating to this topic usaid.gov/afghanistan/agriculture-and-food-security sigar.mil/pdf/audits/SIGAR-16-42-AR.pdf nytimes.com/2015/03/11/world/asia/us-aid-to-afghanistan-often-ends-up-in-taliban-hands.html reuters.com/article/us-afghanistan-opium/u-s-aid-program-in-afghanistan-struggles-to-wean-farmers-off-opium-idUSKBN0M715J20150310 crsreports.congress.gov have been taken down... History of USAID Operations in Afganistan and Recent Alegations USAID's involvement in Afghanistan increased significantly after the U.S.-led invasion in 2001, focusing on reconstruction and development. During the Bush administration, efforts were directed towards stabilizing the country post-Taliban, with projects in health, education, and agriculture under Andrew Natsios. Under Obama, with Rajiv Shah at the helm, USAID broadened its scope with initiatives like the Alternative Development Program/North (ADP/N) and Afghanistan Vouchers for Increased Productive Agriculture Plus (AVIPA+) to diversify agricultural products. Hundreds of millions of dollars to fund “irrigation canals, farming equipment, and even fertilizer used to support the unprecedented poppy cultivation and heroin production in Afghanistan,” benefiting the Taliban Afghanistan has been and continues to be a major hub for opium and heroin. Effectiveness and Oversigh t : There have been criticisms regarding how well USAID projects are managed, with funds often not reaching their intended recipients or projects remaining unfinished. Alleged Misuse of Funds : Claims have surfaced that some aid inadvertently supported the opium trade, as funds for agricultural development might have indirectly benefited poppy cultivation. Agricultural Development: Aimed at improving food security, these programs involved providing seeds, fertilizers, and technical assistance to farmers. Projects like ADP/N and AVIPA+ were designed to support alternative crops to reduce opium production. However, the effectiveness and oversight of these projects may have been involved in more nefarious schemes under President Joe Biden. USAID Doors shut after Elon Musk and DOGE Investigation The U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) has come under scrutiny by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) under the Trump-Musk administration, highlighting several instances of what they describe as "WASTE and ABUSE" within the agency's programs. Here are some things that have already been discovered. $1.5 million to “advance diversity equity and inclusion in Serbia’s workplaces and business communities” $70,000 for production of a “DEI musical” in Ireland $2.5 million for electric vehicles for Vietnam $47,000 for a “transgender opera” in Colombia $32,000 for a “transgender comic book” in Peru $2 million for sex changes and “LGBT activism” in Guatemala $6 million to fund tourism in Egypt source. Hundreds of thousands of dollars for a non-profit linked to designated terrorist organizations — even AFTER an inspector general launched an investigation Millions to EcoHealth Alliance — which was involved in research at the Wuhan lab USAID POPPYSEED PRODUCTION OUT OF AFGHANISTAN: Over recent years, the average annual production of opium poppy in Afghanistan has fluctuated significantly due to various factors including political changes, international intervention, and policy shifts. Before the Taliban's resurgence in 2021, Afghanistan was producing around 6,000 to 9,000 metric tones of opium annually. However, following the Taliban's strict ban on poppy cultivation in April 2022, there was a dramatic decrease, with cultivation dropping by approximately 95% from 2022 to 2023 as per UNODC reports, which translates to a reduction from about 6,200 tones to 333 tones of opium. This has significantly impacted heroin production, which previously could have been up to 320 tonnes of pure heroin from the opium harvest. Before the recent drastic reduction under Taliban rule, Afghanistan indeed supplied over 80% of the world's illicit opium, making it the de facto center for heroin production. Afghanistan has been and continues to be a major hub for opium and heroin. WHY IS USAID BEING INVESTIGATED ? The Department of Government Efficiency recently launched an investigation into the operations and practices of USAID, aiming to scrutinize its efficiency in managing programs and funds. This endeavor underscores the government's commitment to ensuring that federal agencies, particularly those involved in international aid, are held accountable for their financial management and program effectiveness.
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