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Meriam Webster's defines a recessions as 2 quarters of negative GDP Growth
We experienced 2 quarters of Negative GDP growth in 2022 in Q1 and Q2 ____ According to multiple sources. Since then the economy has experienced stagnation.
see data yourself here: https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_real_gdp_growth
Then why wasn't this reported on >>
There was an attempt to change the Definition by
legacy media ...
The economic landscape of the United States in 2022 and 2023 was characterized by a notable downturn, marking a period of significant challenge and contemplation for economists, policymakers, and citizens alike.
This downturn was unofficially recognized as a recession, delineated by two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth
:a widely accepted benchmark for defining economic recessions,
Soooo are we in a recession in 2024 // depends who you ask...
The organization operates under the guidance of a 51-member Board of Directors, comprising representatives from universities, professional associations, and business and labor communities. The current president and CEO of the NBER is James M. Poterba from MIT.
The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting and disseminating unbiased economic research to better understand the workings of the economy. Its primary audience includes policymakers, business professionals, and academics. The NBER is renowned for its studies on business cycles, long-term economic growth, and its ability to forecast the onset and conclusion of recessions in the United States.
Recent NBER research has covered a wide range of topics, including:
- state mandates and healthcare shortages
- Cumulative advantages in research
- Market dynamics of generic drugs in healthcare
- Access, affordability, and quality in healthcare markets
- Social Security and global retirement trends
- Labor force participation among older adults
- Impact of broadband internet access on Medicare patient health outcomes
The NBER publishes its findings through working papers, articles, and reports available on its website. The 2022-2023 recession thus emerged as a critical juncture for the U.S., compelling a reevaluation of economic strategies and resilience mechanisms in face of multifaceted challenges.
The concept of a recession, while seemingly straightforward seems to complicate government employees.
Beyond GDP figures, economists and policymakers look at other critical indicators to declare a recession.
Employment rates are particularly telling; an increase in job losses indicates companies are reducing costs due to decreased demand for their products or services—a classic sign of economic downturn.
Similarly, falling retail sales suggest consumers are tightening their belts, further exacerbating the cycle of reduced spending and production.
Thus, while two quarters of negative GDP growth serve as a clear signal, understanding recession dynamics requires analyzing various aspects of the economy to grasp its full impact on society's wellbeing.
The initial signs that the United States was entering a period of economic contraction became unmistakably clear with the first quarter of negative GDP growth in 2022.
What is Economic Stagnation ?
Economic stagnation is a prolonged period of slow economic growth, typically measured by the growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) or other aggregate measures of economic activity. In some cases, it can also be characterized by high unemployment and underemployment, low consumer and business confidence, minimal investment, and stagnant wages.
Key features of economic stagnation can include:
1. Low Growth Rates: GDP growth is significantly below historical averages and lower than potential growth rates.
2. High Unemployment: Persistent high levels of unemployment or underemployment, with difficulties in creating new jobs.
3. Stagnant Wages: Little or no real wage growth, making it difficult for consumers to increase their purchasing power.
4. Low Investment: Businesses and investors may be reluctant to commit capital to new ventures due to uncertainty or lackluster returns.
5. Deflation or Low Inflation: Prices may remain flat or even decrease, which can be a sign of weak demand.
This period of stagnation can be traced back to start in start in 2022 q3 right after the recession 'ended'.
In recent years, the US economy has experienced a gradual slowdown attributed to several factors.
The transition to AI-powered work has also contributed to job losses, increasing unemployment and further dampening consumer spending.
This downturn marked a significant shift from the previously optimistic forecasts that had dominated economic discussions. The GDP, or Gross Domestic Product, which measures the total value of all goods and services produced over a specific time period, contracted for the first time since the devastating impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic began to wane.
Is the Economy in a Recession? An analysis of the U.S. Economy - Michigan Journal of Economics", sites.lsa.umich.edu, Unknown, https://sites.lsa.umich.edu/mje/2023/01/24/is-the-economy-in-a-recession-an-analysis-of-the-u-s-economy/, Web, Accessed 08. Jun 2024
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"Finland's economy is in recession and the recovery will be slow - Bank of Finland Bulletin", bofbulletin.fi, Unknown, https://www.bofbulletin.fi/en/2023/6/finland-s-economy-is-in-recession-and-the-recovery-will-be-slow/, Web, Accessed 08. Jun 2024
[3]
"West Virginia Economic Outlook 2022-2026 | John Chambers College of Business and Economics | West Virginia University", business.wvu.edu, Unknown, https://business.wvu.edu/research-outreach/bureau-of-business-and-economic-research/economic-outlook-conferences-and-reports/economic-outlook-reports/west-virginia-economic-outlook-2022-2026, Web, Accessed 08. Jun 2024
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"What is the role of monetary policy in alleviating economic downturns? | Tax Policy Center", taxpolicycenter.org, Unknown, https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/briefing-book/what-role-monetary-policy-alleviating-economic-downturns, Web, Accessed 08. Jun 2024
[5]
"You Decide: What Went Right to Prevent the 2023 Recession? - College of Agriculture and Life Sciences", cals.ncsu.edu, Unknown, https://cals.ncsu.edu/news/you-decide-what-went-right-to-prevent-the-2023-recession/, Web, Accessed 08. Jun 2024
Investors expecting a recession peaked in Nov 2022
— Bitcoin Scoop (@bitcoin_scoop) December 29, 2023
And is now down significantly
An economic downturn in 2024 would now catch most off guard pic.twitter.com/BIhrGUGBIN
— Investing.com (@Investingcom) June 18, 2024
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